Gianni Infantino’s previously untouchable status at the top of world football is now under significant pressure. As recently as mid-July, the incumbent was considered a shoo-in to be re-elected as Fifa president next March.
All but a handful of Fifa’s 210 members had endorsed his bid for a fourth term in charge of world football, and he faced no meaningful challenge from any quarter. However, that picture looks very different now, after two weeks of relentless fallout regarding his now-abandoned plan to sell off stakes in the World Cup and other major tournaments.
The world is far from united over whether Infantino should stay or go. To illustrate that division, Sport has mapped the apparent view of all 210 member associations who are able to vote, noting that Nepal, Fifa’s 211th member, is currently suspended and has no voting rights.
In some cases, countries have publicly stated their overt support or opposition regarding Infantino. Others have directly said Sport where they stand when asked to do so, while some are assumed positions based on statements made by the continental confederation the country sits within.
Whereas once Infantino looked set to saunter to a fourth term unopposed, he now might need to have enough numbers on his side to stay in post. If a unity candidate is found to oppose him, the election would become a direct battle. Fifa election votes between two candidates require a simple majority, meaning each candidate would require a total of 106 votes to win.
If there are three or more candidates, a first-round win requires two-thirds of the vote. If there is no winner, there is a second round. The voting power is distributed as follows: Europe has 55 votes, Africa 54, Asia 46, North America 35, Oceania 11, and South America 10.
While the current tally looks like 73 in support of Infantino, 124 in opposition to him, and 13 undecided, that picture is fluid and is likely to change in the months ahead. Despite the turmoil, some figures remain supportive; for instance, Donald Trump has stated that it would be a “terrible mistake” to remove Infantino.
On Monday, the backlash against Infantino intensified when European governing body Uefa, North America’s Concacaf, and the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) signed a joint letter accusing him and Fifa of breaking their trust “through deception”. It is a significant coalition, and those regional governing bodies represent 136 associations between them.
Several European countries, including England and Wales, have formally withdrawn letters of support for Infantino that they had previously sent. However, there are already dissenting members within the confederations, such as Bhutan, the Philippines, and the UAE within Asia, who have not followed the regional stance.
Indeed, Asia is considered a potential swing region for Infantino’s future, with many associations not yet making their position known. Mexico has broken ranks within Concacaf by coming out in support of Infantino. The USA and Canada have stated support for Concacaf’s latest statement, but have not outright declared their opposition to Infantino’s rule.
The Oceania Football Confederation (OFC) has made no public comment since the saga began, nor have any of its members; the OFC said Sport they will release a statement following a meeting on Thursday. Conversely, Infantino still has staunch allies, particularly within Africa (Caf) and South America (Conmebol), who have benefited from his investment programs.
Saudi Arabia, which has yet to take a public position but was awarded hosting rights for the 2034 World Cup on Infantino’s watch, will have its own football leadership elections in August. It cannot be guaranteed that every nation will toe the line of their confederation. While Caf president Patrice Motsepe remains a key ally of Infantino, Concacaf leader Victor Montagliani could emerge as a critical figure.
Infantino has shown no desire to step down, but there is a chance that his time in charge could be over by the autumn. That could come to pass if Fifa Council members try to force his resignation at an emergency meeting. Such a meeting can be called, and must take place within a fortnight, if 19 of the 37 members call for it.
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Also on the panel are Infantino himself and Fifa secretary general Mattias Grafstrom.
Given its makeup, then, this approach is probably unlikely.
Nobody has put their name forward yet, but if the leaders of Uefa, Concacaf, and AFC are serious about toppling Infantino, uniting behind a single candidate is likely their best option.
The deadline for a candidate to announce their intention to stand is November.
What is clear is that Infantino is no longer coasting towards a fourth term, if he clings on that long.
Politicians, private jets and power – the life of a Fifa president
